TheToronto International Film Festivalis always a showcase for some of the year’s best movies. But it’s also a key marker for the beginning of awards season as studios roll out their major Oscar hopefuls to a variety of critics and audiences north of the border. Past TIFF films likeThe Shape of Water,Moonlight,Gravity, and12 Years a Slavewent on to win Oscar gold, while the festival also makes room for surprise breakout hits likeSlumdog MillionaireandSilver Linings Playbook.
So as TIFF 2018 has now come to a close, I can reasonably asses some early Oscar chances for some of the big films that made their debut. DoesDamien Chazellehave anotherLa La Landon his hands withFirst Man? WillAlfonso Cuaronbring Netflix its first Best Picture nomination withROMA? Can anything beatA Star Is Born? There are a lot of questions that remain, but now that a large number of the year’s hopefuls have finally been seen and assessed, we can start making some predictions. Let’s jump in.
DirectorDamien Chazellewas the belle of the TIFF ball two years ago withLa La Land, butFirst Manis a very different kind of film that drew a very different kind of response. This is a grounded, gritty, very intimate chronicle of Neil Armstrong and NASA’s path towards putting a man on the moon, and while it does soar to moving heights, it challenges the viewer in a number of ways. The film didn’t hit quite as big at TIFF as it did at Venice, but it still feels like a major contender in a number of categories.Ryan Gosling’s understated performance has the possibility of being overlooked for not being “showy” enough, but as of right now he’s a contender. DittoClaire Foy, who does a lot with a somewhat small but pivotal role. Then there is Oscar-winnerJustin Hurwitz’s original score, which is one of the year’s best.
First Manfeels like the kind of film that could end up scoring a ton of nominations but walking away with few wins—it’s good and well-crafted, but doesn’t necessarily break the mold. Much will depend on how the film is received over the next few months, and which other films rise to the occasion.
Likely Nominations:
Netflix came close to receiving a Best Picture Oscar nomination withMudbound, and barring any major shakeups, it looks likeROMAwill finally bring that long-awaited recognition home. It helps, of course, that the film is a masterwork by Oscar-winningGravitydirectorAlfonso Cuaron. Here, Cuaron tells the semi-autobiographical story of a family falling apart in 1970 Mexico City, as told through the eyes of their housemaid Cleo, with newcomerYalitza Apariciodelivering a phenomenally subtle performance. Cuaron’s direction is impeccable, utilizing cutting-edge technology to make a black-and-white film wholly immersive (he’s also the DP, editor, writer, and producer). It’s entirely in Spanish as well, and while those could serve as impediments to its eventual success in regards to not being “commercial” enough, Netflix won’t have poor box office receipts to worry about, so success will be in the eye of the beholder.
But Netflix in and of itself could be a roadblock as well, given the some of the Academy members’ negative attitude towards how the streaming service is affecting theatrical releases. Still, the craft of the film is impossible to ignore, and people who loveROMAreally love it. In terms of Oscar prospects, it feels like it falls somewhere between the artful admiration forThe Tree of Lifeand the passion forThe Shape of Water.
Likely Nominations
A Star Is Born
Who’d have predicted thatBradley Cooperwould be the one to craft the Oscar frontrunner of 2018? But he has, he really has.A Star Is Bornrocked critics at TIFF, and each person you talked to peggedthisas the film to beat come Oscar time. It’s an impeccably crafted, tremendously entertaining, and wildly emotional chronicle of love, fame, and everything in between. Not only is Cooper a shoo-in for a Best Director nomination, but he’s also the frontrunner for Best Actor at the moment while co-starLady Gagais the perceived frontrunner for Best Actress. A lot can (and will) change over the next few months, butA Star Is Borngave me seriousLa La Landvibes throughout TIFF—which is both good and bad, considering that film’s Oscar outcome.
The commercial success ofA Star Is Bornwill only help its case, so all eyes have now shifted towards its early October release to see if this thing is as big of a hit with audiences as it was with critics.
If Beale Street Could Talk
While everyone was anticipatingMoonlightdirectorBarry Jenkins’ new filmIf Beale Street Could Talk, the resulting featureandits response were both a bit surprising. ThisJames Baldwinadaptation is gorgeously crafted, but it’s a very small, very methodical, very intimate film. It sparked to some critics terrifically well, while others were left a bit cold or disappointed. The film undoubtedly speaks to the times we live in now, but in a rather different tone of voice. But then it came in and scored the first runner-up prize for the People’s Choice Award, signaling that audiences sparked to this one quite strongly despite its artful vibe.
It’ll be interesting to see how this one rolls out. It’s not the jaw-dropping achievement thatMoonlightwas, but it tackles different kinds of issues in fascinating ways. It could be a major player, or it could be one that falls away a bit as the season steamrolls forward. Regardless, I expect its craft will be rightfully recognized.
Green Book
Undoubtedly the biggest surprise of TIFF wasGreen Book, a dramatic film fromDumb and Dumberco-directorPeter Farrelly(yes really) that ran away with the People’s Choice Award. Past winners of this trophy includeThree Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,Room, andThe Imitation Game—you have to go back to 2011 to find a winner that didn’t land a Best Picture nomination, so that putsGreen Bookdirectly in the awards race. Set in the 1960s,Viggo Mortensenplays a bouncer who drives a famed pianist (Mahershala Ali) through the Deep South, navigating through establishments that will serve people of color. The movie is apparently an immense crowdpleaser in the vein ofThe HelpandThe Blind Side, and Universal is expected to submit Ali for Best Supporting Actor and Mortensen for Best Actor—two nominations that could definitely happen. I guess we have our party crasher.
Six years after12 Years a Slavewon Best Picture, filmmakerSteve McQueenis finally back—and he’s changing things up.Widowsis a far cry from the very dramatic, somber films of McQueen’s past. Instead, he’s crafted a rocking, pulse-pounding thriller of the blockbuster sort, albeit packed with craft, artistic ambition, and thematic heft. IfWidowshits big with critics and audiences down the line, it could enter the Oscar race as a populist contender in the vein ofChristopher Nolan’sInceptionorDunkirk. But it’s also possible folks choose to ignore or overlook the heavy themes McQueen is dabbling in here and simply write this off as a commercial play. That would be a mistake.
Notice for the performances, includingViola Davis’s stirring lead role,Elizabeth Debicki’s resilient supporting turn, andDaniel Kaluuya’s downright terrifying villain, are all in the offing. Again, depending on how things shake out. But don’t underestimate this one.
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Melissa McCarthyscored her first Oscar nomination forBridesmaidsand it seems possible she could score her second withCan You Ever Forgive Me?, this time in the Lead Actress category. The true-story dramedy received a much warmer reception at TIFF than in Telluride, with high marks for McCarthy and co-starRichard E. Grant’s performances. The film itself probably isn’t in the Best Picture offing, but notice for the turns from McCarthy and Grant feel warranted.
Beautiful Boy
Beautiful Boyis one of those Oscar films that’s more a performance piece than a juggernaut contender. It’s tough to watch as it chronicles the real, frustrating cycle of addiction from the point of view of a boy’s father.Timothée ChalametandSteve Carellboth deliver excellent performances here, and Chalamet will likely be submitting in Supporting as the film is mostly told from the POV of Carell’s father character. He’s excellent as well, but if the Best Actor field is crowded it’s possible Carell gets left out in the cold. Chalamet’s stunning work, meanwhile, should get recognized.
Boy Erased
Speaking of performance-driven films,Boy Erasedcould similarly find itself relegated to an acting nod or two—if that.Joel Edgerton’s second directorial feature didn’t drum up too much buzz, but critics did take notice of the supporting performances fromRussell CroweandNicole Kidman. Likelihood of nominations for the two will depend on how crowded those categories get, but they’re very good in the film, as isLucas Hedgesin the lead role of a boy sent to a gay conversion therapy camp. But this is also a film that may fall away rather quickly from the awards conversation if it doesn’t find passionate supporters soon.
Not to worry though,Nicole Kidmanhas a lead role with which to contend.Destroyeris a straight up noir thriller, and while the response to the film at TIFF was far cooler than the one it received at Telluride, Kidman’s turn as a morally ambiguous LAPD detective courted lots of praise. It’s also one of those transformative performances that Academy members seem keen to recognize, as Kidman dons heavy makeup and a wig to reflect the internal pain of her character. Given the somewhat lukewarm response to the film as a whole at TIFF this is probably a bubble contender for Best Actress depending on how heavy the field is this year, but it’s certainly one to keep an eye on.
