It may only be July, but the awards campaigns are already locked and loaded for a number of contenders looking to make their splashy festival debuts in August and September. But before we get to festival season, it’s necessary to take a look back at the year so far and consider the potential awards contenders that were released in the first half of 2019. Sure, the majority of successful awards candidates are released in September and beyond, but films likeGet Out,Black Panther,The Grand Budapest Hotel, andMad Max: Fury Roadhave performed solidly during awards season in the past despite hitting theaters before the end of July.
So what are the contenders from the first half of 2019? Well, it’s a bit less dense than recent years, but there are a couple of smaller films that could enter the awards race in a big way depending on how their respective studios play their campaigns. There’s also at least one blockbuster eyeing some serious recognition, a handful of highly regarded animated features, and one auteur-driven feature that could be a major Oscar contender.
Indeed, the biggest and most serious Oscar contender released in the first half of 2019 is certainlyQuentin Tarantino’sOnce Upon a Time… in Hollywood. The 1969-set film is anchored by two of the biggest movie stars on the planet each delivering unforgettably compelling performances. It remains to be seen how, exactly, Sony Pictures plans on mounting theOnce Upon a Timecampaign, but one could easily see a scenario whereLeonardo DiCapriois nominated for Best Actor andBrad Pittis nominated for Best Supporting Actor.
DiCaprio is the safer bet as he gets the more splashy performance, and unsurprisingly he knocks it out of the park. DiCaprio’s Rick Dalton—a fading, insecure former TV star who feels uneasy about the shifting Hollywood landscape—is a complicated guy, and DiCaprio relishes exploring complex avenues within the relatively constrained timeline of Tarantino’s film. Pitt is delightfully understated as Rick’s easygoing stuntman Cliff, and depending on how formidable the Supporting Actor race is he could get in—although if Pitt’s lead role inAd Astragarners serious buzz, he may focus his efforts on the lead actor race for a different film altogether. That is assuming Sony would be submitting Pitt as Supporting and not Lead inOnce Upon a Time in Hollywood.
Tarantino is also a bona fide contender in the Best Original Screenplay and Best Director categories, while the film has a definite shot at a Best Picture nomination.Once Upon a Time in Hollywoodis less verbose than any of Tarantino’s other movies, but that works in his favor in the Best Director category—as does the fact that this is something of a “softer” or at least more wistful side of Tarantino we’ve never seen before. Moreover, just because there’s less focus on crackling dialogue doesn’t mean the action and character movements aren’t also vital parts of a screenplay.
The movie’s also a definite contender for cinematography (Robert Richardson), editing (Fred Raskin), costume design (Arianne Phillips), and last but not least production design asBarbara Lingstunningly brought 1969 Hollywood back to life.
It’ll be interesting to see howOnce Upon a Time in Hollywoodfares at the box office, as commercial success is oftentimes a solid barometer of how a major, studio-released film from the first half of the year fares during awards season. The film’s off to a great start, scoring the biggest opening weekend of Tarantino’s career. Whatever the case, expect Sony to mount a seriously massive awards campaign for this one.
Speaking of box office, it’s impossible to ignore the awards prospects of Marvel Studios’Avengers: Endgame, which is now the highest grossing film of all time worldwide. The last two films to hold that record—AvatarandTitanic—were each huge Oscar contenders and came away with a number of wins, plus Marvel is coming off its first-ever Best Picture nomination forBlack Panther. Expect Disney to mount another awards campaign, this time putting a heavy focus on the conclusive aspect ofEndgameand how recognizing the film would be to acknowledge the achievement of the Marvel Cinematic Universe as a whole.
Aside from visual effects and possibly even editing, would voters go granular when it comes toEndgameand recognizeRobert Downey Jr., directorsJoeandAnthony Russo, and screenwritersStephen McFeelyandChristopher Markus? I think that likely depends on how seriously Disney’s Oscar campaign pushes those individual aspects of the film, but it’s definitely not outside the realm of possibility.
In addition to these two big, star-studded films, there are also a number of smaller movies that could find themselves in the heat of the awards race in a matter of months. A24 has had a successful rollout of the Sundance indieThe Farewelland could possibly pushAwkwafinain the Best Actress category. The film is definitely a contender forLulu Wang’s autobiographical original screenplay, and it’s performing quite well in limited release. A24 has mounted successful campaigns for autobiographical films likeMoonlightandLady Birdin the past, so this is one to keep an eye on.
There’s alsoJordan Peele’sUsto consider, which at $175 million domestic stands as the seventh highest grossing domestic title of 2019 so far. Considering the other films on that list are superhero movies, Disney remakes, or action films, that’s quite a feat. Granted,Usdidn’t receive the same universal acclaim asGet Out, but Peele admirably refused make the same film twice.Usis a more narratively complex and challenging film, but it’s hard to deny Peele didn’t step up his game as a director. At the very least, Universal could make a solid push forLupita Nyong’oin Best Actress, depending on how crowded that category gets later this year, and I’d personally love to seeMichael Abels’ truly haunting original score recognized.
Acting-wise,Taron Egertoncould make aRami Malek-like run for his turn asElton Johnin the successful music biopicRocketman. While the film wasn’t the worldwide phenomenon thatBohemian Rhapsodywas, it performed admirably at the box office. Moreover, if Malek can win an Oscar for lip-syncing in fake teeth, surely Egerton’s genuine vocal performance counts for something. And while on the subject of Best Actor, Netflix may or may not make a case forZac Efron’s stirring leading turn as Ted Bundy inExtremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile—although that film’s mixed critical response and the fact that Netflix has a number of other more high-profile Oscar contenders to push means Efron may be left out. Amazon could possibly get a Best Actress or Best Supporting Actress nod forEmma Thompson’s impressive performance in the romcomLate Night, although the film’s lackluster box office doesn’t particular help matters.
And over in the Best Animated Feature category,Toy Story 4remains the favorite to go all the way given its blockbuster status at the box office (it’s currently at $917 million) and high critical praise, but DreamWorks Animation’s trilogy-concludingHow to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden Worldshouldn’t be forgotten. LAIKA’sMissing Linkmay also break into the category, but the prospects for critical and commercial disappointmentsThe LEGO Movie 2: The Second PartandThe Secret Life of Pets 2are less assured. And before you ask, no, Disney will not be submittingThe Lion Kingas an animated feature—but consider it your frontrunner to win Best Visual Effects until further notice.
And that about brings us up to speed as we await a number of high-profile debuts over the next two months, which will kick off awards season in earnest. Stay tuned to Oscar Beat all season long, as I’ll be here running down the ups and downs of the race in real time, as always.
