Predicting 2016’s Oscar nominees has been one of the most difficult years since I started doing this. Plenty of categories are wide open, others are plagued by unpredictable voting branches, and late-season curveballs have thrown some of my earlier predictions out of whack. Indeed, if I had sat down to make these predictions just 10 days ago, I’d have been much more confident than I am now. But alas, the clock has run down, and it’s time to make some decisions.
Taking a closer look at the major categories, therearesome seemingly sure things, while the acting categories offer some seriously exciting possibilities. So ahead of tomorrow’s official announcement—which will be read live at 5:30am PT byGuillermo del Toro,Ang Lee, andJohn Krasinski—I’ve taken a stab at predicting who the nominees will be in a number of categories.
*A notebefore we begin: each batch of predictions is listed in order of likelihood to be nominated.
Best Visual Effects
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Jurassic World
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Potential Dark Horses:The Walk,Avengers: Age of Ultron
While Marvel usually snags one nomination in this category per year, I have a feeling the box office marvelsStar WarsandJurassic Worldare going to outshine both of the superhero studio’s offerings.Mad Max: Fury Road,The Martian, andThe Revenant, meanwhile, play into the branch’s proclivity for recognizing work by respected auteurs, and whileThe Revenantmay not be an obvious choice, I think the bear scene clinches the nomination. If for some reasonThe Revenantdoesn’t make the cut, however, look for tech-wizardRobert Zemeckis’ high-wire actThe Walkto land in the field.
Best Film Editing
The Big Short
Possible Dark Horses:Sicario,Bridge of Spies
A very strong batch of candidates here, and ifSicarioproves to be a surprise hit with the Academy don’t be shocked to see it show up, but this category belongs to Valhalla.
Best Original Score
The Hateful Eight– Ennio Morricone
Star Wars: The Force Awakens– John Williams
Bridge of Spies– Thomas Newman
Inside Out– Michael Giacchino
Carol– Carter Burwell
Potential Dark Horses:The Danish Girl– Alexandre Desplat,Spotlight– Howard Shore
A tricky one to be sure. AlthoughThomas Newman’s score forBridge of Spiesis spare and, frankly, unremarkable, he’s a heavy favorite with this branch and has a whopping 12 Oscar noms under his belt. That he was nominated forSaving Mr. Banksis further proof that he probably gets in.Howard ShoreandAlexandre Desplatarealsofavorites with this voting branch, but again I’m going with my gut and sayingMichael GiacchinoandCarter Burwellget in. But if Desplat’s swellThe Danish Girlscore does indeed make the cut, watch out for a dishearteningCarolsnub.
Best Cinematography
The Revenant– Emmanuel Lubezki
Sicario– Roger Deakins
Carol– Edward Lachman
Mad Max: Fury Road– John Seale
The Hateful Eight– Robert Richardson
Potential Dark Horses:Bridge of Spies– Janusz Kaminski,The Martian– Dariusz Wolski
I feel pretty confident in these first four nominees, but the lack of love forThe Hateful Eightoverall andRobert Richardson’s work being left off the American Society of Cinematographers’ honors puts Tarantino’s love letter to 70mm in danger of being snubbed. If so, look for Academy stalwart and longtimeSteven SpielbergcollaboratorJanusz Kaminskito score his seventh nomination.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short– Adam McKay, Charles Randolph
Steve Jobs– Aaron Sorkin
Carol– Phyllis Nagy
The Martian– Drew Goddard
Brooklyn– Nick Hornby
Potential Dark Horses:Room– Emma Donoghue,Anomalisa– Charlie Kaufman
Quite possibly one of the tightest races of the year, Best Adapted Screenplay is an embarrassment of riches.Aaron Sorkinseems primed to pick up another Oscar nod for the night, and the love forThe Big Shortwill surely spread to its wonderfully crafted script. There’s some debate over whether the male-heavy voting body will rightfully recognize the female-ledCarol,Brooklyn, andRoom, and I’m thinking it’s the latter that may be left out in favor ofDrew Goddard’s quip-heavyThe Martian. But don’t count outCharlie Kaufman.
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight– Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer
Inside Out– Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, Meg LeFavue
The Hateful Eight– Quentin Tarantino
Ex Machina– Alex Garland
Bridge of Spies– Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
Potential Dark Horses:Sicario– Taylor Sheridan,Straight Outta Compton– Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus
Another fascinating race, Best Original Screenplay is at no lack for solid contenders.The Hateful Eightdoesn’t seem poised to have the same kind of success thatDjango Unchaineddid, but I can’t imagine the Academy would leaveQuentin Tarantinoout of the screenplay race. Same goes for the near-perfectSpotlight, for whichTom McCarthyandJosh Singerdid their own investigative journalism to result in some of the film’s most insightful moments.Pete Docterpreviously landed a Best Original Screenplay nomination for his last Pixar film,Up, and while I thinkInside Outwill miss the Best Picture cut, a Best Original Screenplay nomination seems fitting.
Best Documentary Feature
The Look of Silence
Cartel Land
Listen to Me Marlon
Winter’s on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
Possible Dark Horses:He Named Me Malala,Where to Invade Next
Strong as ever, there were plenty of incredible docs to sift through in 2016. But the Academy’s Documentary branch is a finicky bunch, so don’t be surprised to see, well, surprises.Amyremains the frontrunner, though.
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep Movie
Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet
Possible Dark Horses:The Good Dinosaur,Minions
This one’s down toInside OutversusAnomalisa, but the nominees should fill out accordingly.
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance –Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone –Creed
Christian Bale –The Big Short
Mark Ruffalo –Spotlight
Idris Elba –Beasts of No Nation
Potential Dark Horses:Benicio Del Toro –Sicario, Michael Keaton –Spotlight
Yes indeed, it looks as thoughSylvester Stalloneis going to pick up a Best Supporting Actor nomination forCreed. This category feels like it’s fairly set, with theSpotlightnomination being the biggest point of contention. The film is such a true ensemble that it becomes tough to pick which actor to nominate, and whether vote splitting might result in no one getting in. But I’m betting on the love ofMark Ruffaloand the fact that he has the “showiest” performance in the film to carry him to a nomination, although I wouldn’t be shocked to seeMichael Keatonland the nomination instead.
Best Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander –Ex Machina
Kate Winslet –Steve Jobs
Jennifer Jason Leigh –The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara –Carol
Rachel McAdams —Spotlight
Potential Dark Horses:Helen Mirren –Trumbo, Alicia Vikander –The Danish Girl
For the past three months, prognosticators had this category earmarked forAlicia Vikander’s stunning turn inThe Danish Girl. Funny thing is, while Vikander started picking up a slew of Best Supporting Actress trophies on the critics awards circuit, none of them were forThe Danish Girl—they were all forEx Machina. And so just like that, Vikander remains a frontrunner in this category but for an entirely different movie. Of course she could still secure a Best Supporting Actress nomination forThe Danish Girlinstead, throwing another curveball into an already fascinating category, but I’m going with my gut and saying she gets in forEx MachinaandThe Danish Girl, albeit in different categories.
Elsewhere,Kate WinsletandJennifer Jason Leighseem like safe bets for nominations as well, but Mara’s fate is less certain and depends on whether Academy voters choose to recognize her in the Best Actress category instead—which is where her performance inCarolbelongs, really.Rachel McAdamsis a strong contender forSpotlight, and if the film is indeed still the Best Picture favorite it makes sense that it will also secure at least one acting nod, but I also wouldn’t be surprised ifHelen Mirrenshook things up with a nomination forTrumbo, thanks to the Academy’s older voting base which seems to be a big fan of the middling biopic.
