Come on, you knew this article was coming. Given thatStar Wars: The Force Awakensis the first-ever December release for aStar Warsmovie, folks have not only been curious about the film’s box office prospects, but also whether it could be a genuine awards contender given its Oscar-friendly timing. Indeed, most of the Academy’s heavy hitters open during the October/November/December corridor, so it was impossible to ignore the potential ofThe Force Awakenslanding some Oscar recognition.
Of courseStar Warsis no ordinary film, and in an effort to prevent leaks, Lucasfilm and Disney declined to go the usual route one would take when courting Oscar: early press screenings, splashy film festival debuts, etc. Instead, everyone who wants to seeThe Force Awakenswill do so on their own accord, at the movie theater over the holidays—although the Academy does have a pair of standard screenings set for members this weekend, while the movie is simultaneously in wide release.
So now that we’ve gotten a look at the thing, doesJ.J. Abramshave his first big Oscar contender? Probably not, although the film will almost certainly pick up the most nods sinceReturn of the Jedi. you’re able to count on well deserved nominations for the film’s Sound Editing and Sound Mixing, and Best Visual Effects is also probably a safe bet. I also would earmark a Best Original Score nomination forJohn Williams, who may offer the film’s biggest surprise in the sheer quantity of new music he crafted for the sequel. And there’s also a possibility ofRick CarterandDarren Gilfordscoring a Best Production Design Oscar nomination as that category has become much more sci-fi/VFX friendly over the past few years.
Beyond that, there’s no standout performance that could feasibly break through any of the competitive acting categories at the moment (Harrison Fordisfine, but he’s no Oscar contender here), and while Abrams does an admirable job pleasing diehard fans of the franchise, his direction lacks the flash or vigor that would edge him into the Best Director race. In keeping with the series' tradition, Abrams shoots the picture very classically, which is certainly fitting for the franchise but doesn’t put him in the Oscar conversation. Likewise,Dan Mindel’s cinematography is similarly solid, but lacking the edge or boldness that would nudge it into year-end consideration.
But what about Best Picture? It’s not a total impossibility, but I wouldn’t count on a nomination for the big prize. Many Academy voters have already settled on a number of commercial favorites that are vying for slots alongside prestige dramas and indies, likeThe Martian,Straight Outta Compton,Inside Out, and the late-surgingCreedandMad Max: Fury Road. WillForce Awakensknock voters’ socks off enough to unseat one of their favorites of the year? When making nomination ballots for Best Picture, Academy members only have five slots, and I’m dubiousThe Force Awakenswill conjure that kind of passion in this short amount of time before voting concludes on January 8th.
Again, I’m not saying it’s entirely out of the question forStar Wars: The Force Awakensto score a Best Picture nomination, but I don’t really see it being the kind of commercial game-changer that can break into the field this late in the season. That being said, it will almost certainly have some sort of presence at the Oscars in at least a couple of the below-the-line categories, and you can bet the telecast will leanhardon the film in order to bring in those ratings.George Lucas’Star Wars, however, will probably remain the sole Best Picture nominee of the franchise.
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