The highly secretive sequelBlade Runner 2049has finally been released in theaters, and the most important question needs answering: what are the film’s Oscar chances? Okay somaybeawards notices aren’t really all that important—Iguesswe could just talk about the film’s artistic merits and thematic weight and brilliant performances. But we’ve already done that. A few times. And this isOscar Beat, so enough with the pretense—isRoger Deakinsfinally gonna win that Academy Award?
Maybe! As Collider’s resident Oscar expert I’ve been covering the awards race incredibly closely for a few years now, and 2017 marks a really weird year. Normally around this time we have a frontrunner or two, or the race has taken some sort of shape. But right now, it feels like anything could happen. And that both muddies and boosts the Oscar chances ofBlade Runner 2049at the same time.
Traditionally speaking, the sci-fi film has the goods. It’s at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is good! And the important thing is that people who love the moviereallylove it. When it comes to getting Oscars, passion matters. It’s also got pedigree. DirectorDenis Villeneuvewas a somewhat surprise Best Director nominee last year forArrival, so we already have evidence that the guy has support within the Academy. Box office is the big question mark. The film raked injust $31.5 millionin its first weekend, which is well below expectations but also kind of solid for a two-and-a-half-hour R-rated sequel to a very slow 35-year-old sci-fi film. If it picks up legs in the weeks to come, that boosts its profile and keeps it rich in the minds of Academy voters. If not, well, it’s not game over, but it may be a tougher route ahead. Critical support will be key as well. If it starts popping up on Top 10 lists at the end of November/beginning of December, that further increases its chances.
Many have been making the comparison toMad Max: Fury Road, another Warner Bros. blockbuster that was nominated for 10 Oscars and won six. The comparison actually isn’t too far off—they’re both visually stunning, impeccably crafted sci-fi films that are basically auteur twists on blockbuster storytelling. Commercially appealing on the surface, but substantive and introspective on the inside.
Moreover, it really seems likeBlade Runner 2049has been embraced by those in the filmmaking community, who appear to be responding to the tremendous craftsmanship. So yeah, I think it definitely has a shot at a Best Picture nomination, and depending on how the rest of the year shakes out, Villeneuve could be back in the Best Director race. I even think it’s possible thatHarrison Fordcouldmaybesneak into the Best Supporting Actor race. He gives a great performance, and it feels like the kind of legacy nomination to recognize an entire career that sometimes happens.
Beyond that, likeMad Max: Fury RoadI think the film could clean up in the technical categories. Deakins has maybe his best shot ever at finally winning for Best Cinematography, but hedoeshave serious competition inHoyte van Hoytema’s work onDunkirk. But a nomination is a given. Ditto to Production Design, Costume Design, Visual Effects, and the Sound categories. Best Original Score forHans ZimmerandBenjamin Wallfisch’s wonderfully evocative, pulsing soundtrack is also very much in the cards.
Again, it’s still fairly early in the Oscar race and anything could happen, but a few days post-release it does feel likeBlade Runner 2049is a contender. Below are the categories in which I think nominations are possible.
For more on the ongoing Oscar race, catch up on previous Oscar Beat columns right here. And look for my category-specific predictions on Collider very, very soon.
And for more onBlade Runner 2049, peruse our recent coverage below.
